New York Red Bulls - Pittsburgh Riverhounds Ennusteet ja Vetovihjeet

I’m backing the Red Bulls because the base spot is strong enough on its own. They’re the MLS side at home, and the club notes they are 10-0-4 in U.S. Open Cup matches at Sports Illustrated Stadium since it opened, which is exactly the kind of home-cup profile I like to trust. I also think the matchup is cleaner for New York than it looks at first glance. Pittsburgh are a serious cup team and have beaten MLS opposition in recent years, but their own preview says they’re coming off a 1-0 loss at Birmingham and have been searching for more bite in front of goal after producing only one shot on target in that match. What keeps me from going higher is that I respect the Riverhounds’ cup mentality. They’re one of the few clubs to reach the Round of 32 in four straight campaigns and they’ve gone 3-2 in their last five against MLS teams, so I’m not treating this like a free square. I still want New York because the venue, division gap, and long home Open Cup record are enough for me.